Risky Business

Despite media hyperbole, the absolute number of deaths attributable to traffic accidents (and traffic deaths as a percentage of the total population) have declined over the past two decades.   There's an easy explanation for that happy outcome.  Despite the explosion in driver distractions like smart phones, multi-speaker entertainment systems and other tech devices that wrench a driver's eyes and attention from the high speed world around him, cars and the highways on which they travel are far safer than they were just a few years ago.

Speed limits and state laws designed to prohibit distracted driving are important in saving lives.  But the most prominent reason fewer graves are being dug for those killed on the nation's roads is that cars are fantastically equipped to protect drivers from their own foolish behavior and incompetence.   Wrapped in a steel cocoon, lined with brilliant innovations like side impact airbags, shatterproof glass, warning beepers, anti-lock brakes and back up cameras, drivers and their unlucky passengers are now relatively immunized from carelessness and stupidity.

Well now just wait one darn second!   If cars are safer and fewer people are being killed, why are my insurance rates going up every year?   Unfortunately, just because fewer people are dying on the roads that doesn't mean that reckless drivers still aren't doing everything in their power to try to kill one another.   In fact, accidents and the associated insurance claims are on the rise.  Because there are more cars on the road and more opportunities for drivers to do anything but drive the car, the chances of an accident have risen even as deaths caused by those accidents decline.

There is an even more interesting and less recognized phenomenon that directly leads to reckless behavior on the road. Simply, it is our society's desire to externalize risk.  Huh?  What the heck does that mean?  Let me give you an example.

Let's say I like to rock climb and I like to do it without ropes or artificial support.  That's a rather dangerous endeavor as you might imagine.  It's just me against slippery rocks and gravity.   I bear the entire risk of a mistake.  The rock and my tendency to fall towards the center of the earth could care less if I make the wrong move.  So, to prevent myself from falling 300 feet and splattering all over a canyon floor, I take great care to make sure I move slowly, carefully and ensure each move I make is analyzed for perfection.    My muscles are toned and fit and my mind is sharp.  In essence, I know the risk is purely mine and to mitigate the likelihood of death or serious injury.  In essence, I stay on the top of my game.

However, when driving a car, we don't quite bear the same risk of making a mistake.  To begin with, our cars are designed to not only drive pretty much by themselves but, in the event of a catastrophic failure or accidental crash, the car acts in wondrous ways to protect its occupants.  Further, despite knowledge that a car accident is expensive and potentially very painful, we act irrationally with regard to what we do in the car.  We speed, text, eat, talk on the phone, chat with other occupants, drink and drive, medicate and drive and all manner of other conceivable actions designed to entertain or otherwise distract us while we are speeding down the road.   If we do get in a wreck, and a lot of people do, we are insured against too much financial and physical pain.  In essence, we've taken our risk and distributed across the general population.  Somebody in California pays because we in New York can't stay on our side of the pavement.

Social scientists, policy makers and economists all have fancy terms for distribution of risk to other people.  They also have fancy terms for what it means to your bottom line finances.  Ask the average Joe or Jane on the street if he or she thinks car insurance and air bags are bad.  What do you think the answer would be?  Best thing since sliced bread, right?  Really, though, if every time you jumped in a car and there was no money to be had to replace your car if you wrecked it or you ran the risk of losing an arm if you weren't careful, do you think your behavior would change?  Would you think twice about texting or, perhaps, carrying on a conversation on your cell phone?  Would you be less reckless?  More risk averse?  Probably.

I had dinner last night with a friend who works part time for a company that is developing a product that identifies a person driving a car and disables that person's smart phone so that he or she won't be tempted to take eyes and attention off the task at hand.   It's a good idea because reams of evidence exist proving that smart phone use while behind the wheel - texting, internet surfing or simple phone calls - is in fact more likely to cause problems than a driver who has had too much to drink.  That's scary, especially if you've seen what drunk drivers can do.   But, pushing safety products into the mainstream is only part of the battle.

The war will be won when we place the risk of making a bad decision back on the decision maker.   Does that mean making risk taking drivers buy cheaper cars without airbags and other safety devices or giving them access to the road without insurance?   I don't see that happening.

What I do see attainable is prudent public policy that puts most of the burden back on the ones whose shoulders bear the blame.  Instead of spreading the risk, narrow it.  Focus the consequences when things go bad.   Like a young child that inadvertently touches a red hot stove top, the toddler will think hard before he or she does that again.  A driver who bears the consequences of risky behavior will surely do the same.